Natgas Market Fundamentals

Twenty nine years of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation data across gas and power. Plus, eight interconnected forecast models — SASEA's deepest, most mature forecast layer — estimate the supply, demand, and storage forces that tip the balance of the U.S. natural gas market.

1

29 Years of Market History

SASEA has a deep knowledge base across natural gas, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, and pipeline infrastructure. In addition, SASEA taps into decades of physical supply, demand, storage, and generation data — all queryable through natural conversation.

Ask anything in any context and get factual, logical answers with contextual analysis in ~25 seconds or less.

DATA COVERAGE

15 live data sources · 88+ database tables · 800K+ pre-computed metrics always ready · 29 years of historical depth

2

24-Month Model Forecasts

A suite of walk-forward validated models forecasting every component of natural gas supply, demand, and storage 24 months forward. Each model refreshes daily with live data — zero human intervention.

Experiment with your own assumptions directly in chat, or (with Desk and Team mode) upload the SASEA BRAIN™ Balance Report workbook — SASEA backfills latest actuals and populates forward months with the most recent forecasts.

MODEL SUITE

30+ automated fetch + refresh workflows · Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) refresh 6x/day · 4 NWP forecast models · 5-region bottom-up storage stack

US Weather & Economy

Gas-intensity and population-weighted HDD/CDD across 9 Census Divisions with NWP forecasts from 7 numerical weather models and econometric demand modeling.

Weekly + 6x/day NWPFully Automated

R² = 0.957

Model Accuracy

CONUS HDD/CDD, implied gas demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 199-city GFS + ECMWF weather forecasts
  • Gas-intensity weighted degree days
  • Implied gas demand factors (Bcf/HDD, Bcf/CDD)
  • FRED economic indicators (INDPRO, TCU, GDP)
  • 30-year normal deviation analysis

Data Sources

NOAA CPCGFSECMWFGEFSEC ENSFREDEIA

NatGas Production

US natural gas production tracking with rig-based forecasts, DPR basin breakdowns, and STEO-calibrated 24-month forward outlook.

Monthly + weekly nowcastFully Automated

MAE = 2.07 pp (Phase 2)

Model Accuracy

US dry gas production (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • National and basin-level production history
  • Rig-count production forecast
  • Walk-forward validated at basin level
  • DPR basin breakdowns (7 basins)
  • STEO-calibrated 24-month forward outlook

Data Sources

EIA-914EIA DPRBaker HughesSTEO

Imports/Exports & LNG

Mexico pipeline and LNG trade flows with multi-model regression forecasts and terminal-level detail for the operational US LNG export fleet.

MonthlyFully Automated

R² = 0.60–0.96 by route

Model Accuracy

Pipeline + LNG trade flows (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly trade flows by route and direction
  • LNG export facility tracker (9 operating, 5 under construction) with utilization
  • 4-model LNG trade forecast (R² = 0.746)
  • Mexico pipeline exports (R² = 0.96)
  • List all LNG export facilities in the US

Data Sources

EIASTEODOE LNG Reports

NatGas Demand (Non-Electric)

Six non-electric demand sectors — Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Vehicle, Lease & Plant, Pipeline — with weather-normalized HDD/CDD regression forecasts.

MonthlyFully Automated

R² = 0.76–0.99 by sector

Model Accuracy

Res/Com/Ind demand (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Sector-level demand decomposition (Bcf/d)
  • Residential regression (R² = 0.978)
  • Commercial regression (R² = 0.975)
  • Industrial demand with INDPRO + TCU (R² = 0.775)
  • Weather-demand sensitivity factors by month

Data Sources

EIANOAA CPCFRED

NatGas Demand (Electric Generation)

Gas-for-power dispatch modeling — the largest and most volatile demand sector (~35% of total). Merit-order dispatch engine across 17 US balancing authorities with 18,000+ generators, per-ISO regional weather, and vintage-adjusted heat rates.

Daily (weekday dispatch + 4-week forward)Fully Automated

R² = 0.954

Model Accuracy

Gas-fired power burn by ISO (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Merit-order economic dispatch across 7 ISOs + 10 additional BAs
  • 18,000+ generators with per-ISO coal-gas switching baselines
  • Per-ISO gas burn forecasting with regional HDD/CDD weather drivers
  • Vintage-adjusted heat rates by technology (CCGT, CT, coal ST, steam)
  • Wind/solar/hydro/nuclear displacement quantification
  • Weekly generation by fuel type (gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro)

Data Sources

EIA-930EIA Form 860NOAA NWPEPA CEMS

NatGas EG Displacement (Nuclear & Renewables)

95 nuclear reactors tracked daily via NRC, plus wind and solar capacity growth — quantifying gas displacement from non-gas generation changes.

Daily (nuclear) + Monthly (renewables)Fully Automated

R² = 0.68–0.997

Model Accuracy

Nuclear capacity factor, renewable displacement (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • 95 nuclear units tracked daily (NRC status)
  • Fleet capacity factor monitoring
  • Wind + solar capacity growth tracking
  • Gas burn displacement estimates (Bcf/d)
  • Seasonal outage pattern analysis

Data Sources

NRCEIASTEO

NatGas Storage

Weekly EIA storage tracking with the V17 national storage model (566 model features vs typical ~50, over a 10-year lookback), NWP-driven live forecasts, end-of-season projections, and Monte Carlo confidence intervals.

6x/day (NWP-driven) + weekly validationFully Automated

RMSE = 3.44 Bcf | 100% directional

Model Accuracy

Weekly storage change forecast (Bcf)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • V17 national storage forecast (RMSE = 3.44 Bcf)
  • 100% directional accuracy (53-week backtest)
  • 566 model features (vs typical ~50), 10-year lookback window
  • NWP-driven: refreshes with every GFS/ECMWF update
  • End-of-season Monte Carlo (P10/P50/P90)

Data Sources

EIANOAA CPCGFSECMWFGEFSNRC

NatGas (fundies) Balance Report

The SASEA BRAIN™ — synthesizes all seven fundamentals models

Integrates all seven supply and demand models into a complete monthly supply/demand balance with 24-month forward outlook. The only AI-powered integrated NG S&D balance available.

DailyFully Automated

Integrates all components

Model Accuracy

Total supply vs total demand balance (Bcf/d)

Headline Metric

Key Features

  • Monthly S&D balance sheet (supply, demand, storage residual)
  • Cross-model integration (all 7 models)
  • 24-month forward balance with implied storage
  • EOS projection with balance-constrained weekly disaggregation
  • Automated reconciliation with EIA actuals

Data Sources

EIASTEONOAA CPCFREDNRC

Get All 8 Models

8 integrated forecast models. Live API connections. AI-powered updates.

$75/mo

Pro tier. Starter tier available from $25/mo.